The Vikings offense isn’t very good. But then there’s the reality that the team sits at a pristine 5-0 record. Can both be true?
Mike Sando put together a piece for The Athletic, an article that begins with a consideration of the NFL’s last remaining perfect teams. There are the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, the NFL’s version of royalty. Too often, though, have the Vikings been jesters, stumbling and bumbling on a grand stage while trying to get up to that royal level. Is that still the case or are these Vikings on the cusp of joining the NFL’s true top franchises?
Vikings Offense Not Yet Good Enough, Called “A Mess”
Consider just a basic fact to help illustrate the issue: Minnesota is averaging less than two touchdowns per game.
Sando has clarified the oddness of scoring so few touchdowns across the opening five games: “The Vikings’ nine touchdowns are tied for the ninth-fewest through five games in the franchise’s 66-year history. But here they are, 5-0 for the second time in three seasons.”
Getting into the meat and potatoes of the Sando argument involves seeing praise aplenty for the defense and special teams. Much of the analysis focuses on EPA, an advanced metric that can evaluate how each phase is doing.
On social media, Sando clarified the discrepancy between where the Vikings offense finds itself in contrast to what Brian Flores and Matt Daniels are getting out of their end of things:
Some of his insight: “Ideally, the lines for offense and defense would not diverge sharply enough to create a wishbone effect, but there’s no getting around the facts. Minnesota’s offense ranks 26th on average in those above-mentioned categories in which the defense ranks first: 24th in points per game, 31st in EPA per play and success rate, 27th in EPA per pass play and sack rate, 18th in third-down conversion rate and 25th in red zone touchdown rate.”
More: “The Vikings have won their past four games despite finishing each with -8 EPA or worse on offense, something no team has accomplished since at least 2000. Minnesota is the 53rd team to start 5-0 this century but only the seventh with negative EPA on offense during that start. The other six offenses on that list outperformed these Vikings by far.”
Underneath these paragraphs is another chart, complete with a “Vikings’ offense is a mess” tagline at the top. At the very least, the chart offers some “comps” that are “encouraging.” Past teams have had nice seasons behind elite play on defense but humdrum offense.
To be sure, things haven’t yet been good enough for Kevin O’Connell, Kyler Murray, and Justin Jefferson (among others). What’s positive, though, is that they’re winning while they’re growing.
Better yet, Murray and Jefferson showed off some legit chemistry yesterday, connecting on some difficult grabs where the QB demonstrated a level of trust in his WR that bodes well for where things could go.
Sando hints at the precise possibility later on, writing, “There’s a good chance quarterback Kyler Murray and the offense will improve after the team returns from its Week 6 bye. Murray split reps in training camp and suffered a concussion on his 11th snap of the season, but he completed 80 percent of his passes for 229 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, hitting season-bests in EPA per pass play and passer rating.”
The Minnesota Vikings are going into the Week 6 bye as a team sorting through a pile of injuries. Getting healthy and continuing to improve could involve a Minnesota mess turning into many more Vikings victories.